Hawke's Bay should have mostly dry, settled weather for the remainder of the school holidays.

WeatherWatch head analyst Philip Duncan said there should largely be good weather in Hawke's Bay for the rest of January.

"There's westerlies blowing through in the next few days and then high pressure moves through, which normally means fairly warm to hot weather," he said.

"It will certainly be dry, with perhaps some showers around January 13 - what's called convergence showers where you get wind blowing in two different directions and a few heavy downpours.


"But mostly, it will be dry for the next couple of weeks. Typical summer weather, really."

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) predicted dry, settled weather in Hawke's Bay in its latest outlook, with average summer temperatures and below-average rainfall until February. Overall, January was likely to be cooler than usual nationwide with a mix of dry and wet weeks, according to MetService.

"Clear signals of below-normal temperatures are seen everywhere in the country during January, although eastern areas of both islands return to normal by the last week of the month.

"Less than normal rainfall continues in the eastern parts, near normal elsewhere."

Mr Duncan was also expecting changeable weather.

"[The unsettled weather pattern] is a good thing because it's going to bring some rain, which farmers need, especially in the South Island.

"Campers will, of course, also have to deal with the rain but it shouldn't go on long enough to deter many."

A band of high pressure during the middle of January would cause the weather to settle down and temperatures to ramp up later in the month, he said.

"It'll be good weather for holidaymakers.

"There's perhaps a few more showers in the forecast for holiday spots than last summer but there's definitely still plenty of dry weather coming in."

The immediate forecast, however, is a mixed bag for the Bay.

MetService meteorologist Claire Flynn said that a southerly front approached the region yesterday evening bringing a drop in temperatures, a change in wind and scattered showers.

The Bay was battered with some wild winds to end a balmy week in the region.

Gales reached 111km/h at Cape Kidnappers yesterday but have since eased.

Today will be mostly fine with some fine breaks this afternoon and a cooler 21C high.

Tomorrow will see rain in the ranges with a few drops making their way into the cities.

With a northerly shift, temperatures will pick back up to the mid 20s.

Tropical Cyclone Ula, which remains a serious category three storm, may reach New Zealand this week, says WeatherWatch.co.nz.

While the storm - well north in the tropics halfway between Fiji and New Caledonia - is expected to gradually weaken as it leaves the tropics and heads south, it may still bring heavy rain to the upper North Island tomorrow.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says there's a fairly low chance of severe weather at this stage.