Dairy prices are down and it looks as if we are heading for a long, hot, dry summer.
Being based in a region that has a strong agricultural component to its economy, you might expect that to lead me to be a bit pessimistic. Not so fast.
While I expect times are likely to get tougher for farmers, the outlook is still bright for lot of regions if you know where to look for the opportunities.
Our dollar has lost a lot of its strength over the past year, partly because of those dropping dairy prices, and that pays dividends in other areas.
Tourist spots can expect to see the benefit as visitors have a bit more cash to spend.
The lower dollar also helps exporters and manufacturing and primary industries are already feeling the benefits of that. Goods exports rose 5.6 per cent between August last year and August this year and were at their highest level since 2008.
Keep looking for the silver lining. In Northland this summer I hope we'll see more tourists, more often, staying for longer to spend some of their now more valuable money. Who knows - they might find their holiday place viable for investment, not just property but people, business and community as well.
I've seen a few business surveys lately that seem to show that small firms in particular are losing confidence. Interestingly, they still rate their own outlook but are less sure about the economy in general.
Negativity can be contagious so it is important to keep an eye on the things that are going well for our regions as well as our national economy.
Focus on what you are doing well, identify potential opportunities for growth and be open to change, this is what secures your business for the long term.
But if you're worried about the outlook for your business, get some assistance now. Getting through a turbulent patch is much harder without good planning.