Fears that oil spewing out of the Rena could affect the ecology of the Bay's rocky shoreline for five years has been downplayed by a Tauranga-based university expert.
Professor Chris Battershill, an expert on marine ecology and environmental science, said five years was an absolute worst case scenario. He believed it was more likely the effects would be measured in months rather than years.
The new chairman of coastal science for the University of Waikato at the Tauranga campus is leading a programme in which some of the world's top postgraduate coastal scientists will map environment forces affecting Tauranga Harbour.
The grounding of the Rena has seen a switch in the direction of the students research to the effects of oil slicks.
Mr Battershill said the ecological effect would depend on the amount of oil that washed up at any one time. If exposed beaches were cleaned up quickly then the recovery would be quite quick. However, major tanker disasters overseas had shown that if the oil got into estuary areas such as a salt marsh, and it was mixed with dispersants, it could take five years to recover.
"This is a very unlikely event," he said. It was more likely it would be all over by Christmas.
A realistic scenario was that the ecological effects would be measured in months for mangroves lining Tauranga's harbour and estuaries.
"My personal feeling is that it will not be too bad."
Students were mobilised soon after the Rena's grounding last Wednesday to video and take samples of the marine environments around the offshore islands of Motiti, Karewa, Motunau (Plate Island) and the Okaparau Reef north-west of Motiti (inshore from Astrolabe Reef).
They worked from Friday to Sunday gathering data so that there would be before and after evidence of the impact of the oil. It could be vital in any legal case against the Rena's owners.
Meanwhile, a student funded by the Bay of Plenty Regional Council has been directed to study the effects of the spill and is being helped with testing by volunteers from the Tauranga Environment Centre.