By ADAM EASTON herald correspondent
CARACAS - Despite presiding over the worst recession in a decade and escalating crime, voters in oil-rich Venezuela look set to hand President Hugo Chavez victory at the polls on Monday.
Recent surveys put the 45-year-old former coup leader as much as 21 per cent ahead of his nearest rival and former brother-in-arms, Francisco Arias.
The key to his probable success is his fanatical support among the poor, who make up two-thirds of Venezuela's 24 million people. Many of them, who cannot understand how a country with the largest oil reserves outside of the Gulf can remain so poor, have put their faith in the President.
"Chavez is like a father figure to his voters," said political analyst Angel Alvarez. "He has a psychological relationship with them. It's much more emotional than rational."
This champion of the poor is undoubtedly one of Venezuela's most charismatic political figures in decades. Supporters connect with his down-to-earth style and fondness for interrupting his political speeches with homespun anecdotes from his grandmother.
Tens of thousands filled Caracas' streets for his campaign closing rally, despite torrential downpours. Some joined in with his impromptu songs, others wore imitations of his trademark red military beret.
"I feel that when he speaks, he speaks from inside of me," said supporter Jose Guillermo, as he waved his Chavez flag.
Chavez likes to portray himself as a man of destiny, whose duty is to complete his "peaceful revolution." He quotes liberally from the speeches of Simon Bolivar, the country's national hero who won independence for much of the continent from the Spanish.
Chavez is a former paratroop lieutenant-colonel who rose to fame after leading a failed coup with his opponent Arias in 1992. He was elected in December 1998 after vowing to bring to an end decades of corrupt government and the squandering of vast oil revenues by Venezuela's two traditional parties.
Since taking office 16 months ago, Chavez has completed his "political revolution." He shut down the Opposition-dominated Congress, sacked several Supreme Court judges and had a new constitution written, allowing him to stand for consecutive terms. This weekend's elections were called because the new charter requires most public offices to be re-legitimised.
Chavez admits that completing this part of the revolution has been at the expense of the economy. Last year it shrank by 7.2 per cent, a figure made more remarkable because it coincided with soaring oil prices.
"Venezuela is continuing its dramatic process towards impoverishment. Neither President Chavez, nor his economic team, nor the Central Bank, appear to feel the weight of their responsibility," said economist Orlando Ochoa. Added to this are fears over rising violent crime. Up to 100 people are murdered every weekend. Chavez has also been accused of acting like a dictator with his aggressive attacks on the media and the Church.
Although his supporters may be prepared to give him more time to turn the economy around, the President perhaps has more pressing problems with the military.
Many officers dislike being taken out of the barracks to perform civic duties such as painting schools under Chavez' social plans.
Although Chavez insists the military are behind him, Foreign Minister Jose Vicente Rangel has confirmed reports that opponents of Chavez in the National Guard have plotted to assassinate the President. Ex-captain Luis Garcia Morales said the plan was dropped because they feared it would make Chavez a martyr.
Sections of the armed forces are known to support Arias. Despite courting the business vote, Arias' campaign has been especially lacklustre since the elections were postponed on May 28 because of technical problems, and few analysts give him a chance of winning.
Alvarez believes Chavez is going to be a long-term phenomenon who will adapt to the many political and economic challenges he faces.
"Some political analysts think Chavez is just a transitory figure, but I think he will be more permanent, like [Alberto] Fujimori in Peru."
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.