MELBOURNE - If Auckland trainer Frank Ritchie has one birthday wish it is for clear skies and a firm track for Showella who begins her Caulfield-Melbourne Cups campaign at Flemington tomorrow.
Ritchie, who turns 56 today, and the mare's owner Terry Archer are concerned about continued rain in Melbourne and the slow track rating given out yesterday.
Showella has been heavily backed to win both Cups and, although she has never raced on anything worse than dead, will start in the group two Craiglee Stakes (1600m) regardless.
"It is a big question mark," Archer said.
"She's never raced in really wet going, but we know enough to suggest she'd be happier on good ground.
"She's such a long-striding horse so it depends on what the footing is like.
"But apart from our concerns about the weather, she's very well and we'll plug on. She'll start no matter what."
Showella is at 12-1 in early markets for the Craiglee with Umrum and Oliver Twist equal favourites at 4-1.
Last year's Caulfield Cup winner Sky Heights is on the second line of betting at 7-1 to repeat his 1999 Craiglee win as he steps out for the first time since last year's Melbourne Cup.
The weather aside, Ritchie said he could not be happier with Showella who ran third behind Tie The Knot and Arena in both the Ranvet Stakes and Mercedes Classic in Sydney last autumn.
Her Sydney Cup bid was aborted on race morning when she was found to have a stone bruise and she was immediately taken home for a rest with the spring in mind.
"She went out to the paddock a fit horse which was a bonus," Ritchie said.
"So she's come back fitter than she would have normally. She's carrying less condition than she was in Sydney and is ready to race.
"Her next start after the Craiglee will be the Underwood Stakes then either the Turnbull Stakes or the Yalumba."
The group one Underwood Stakes (1800m) is at Caulfield on September 23 after which Showella is likely to run into Sunline in either the group two Turnbull (2000m) on October 7 or the group one Yalumba (2000m) at the same track a week later.
"If we have to race Sunline, we will," Ritchie said.
"We've mapped out a programme and if that's what it includes then that's what we do."
Showella demonstrated her staying potential with her 1999 South Australian Derby win over 2500m and her trainer has no doubts that 3200m is well within her reach, which is good news for punters who have shown their support early.
She shares 12-1 equal favouritism alongside Freemason for the Melbourne Cup and is on the second line of betting, also at 12-1, for the Caulfield Cup.
"She can sprint twice in a race which is a great help for a stayer," Ritchie said.
"That way she can get out of trouble mid-race if she has to and still have something left at the end.
"I am a little surprised at how short she is this far out from the cups but hopefully she can live up to it."
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