'World War III' on hold - for the moment

George Bush believes Iran is still a threat, despite the latest intelligence on its nuclear capabilities. Photo / Reuters

President George W. Bush faced questions yesterday about whether he knew of intelligence that Iran had ended its nuclear arms programme when he warned in October that Tehran could trigger "World War III".

Bush yesterday also defended his policy saying: "Iran was dangerous, Iran is dangerous and Iran will be dangerous if they have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon".

One foreign-policy expert said the possibility that the US would bomb Iran "has now shrunk to nearly zero", but Bush insisted that "all options are on the table for dealing with Iran".

Bush said he was "made aware" of the new National Intelligence Estimate, which concluded that Iran halted its programme in 2003, last week. But he then said: "In August, I think it was [US intelligence chief] Mike McConnell came in and said, 'We have some new information.' He didn't tell me what the information was."

Flynt Leverett, formerly of Bush's National Security Council said: "I can't imagine that McConnell ... would tell the President about this and not tell him what the information actually said."

The difficulty for the Bush Administration now will be to persuade the public that the world needs to ratchet up the pressure on Iran. "People are relieved that World War III is on hold," said Michael Levi of the Council on Foreign Relations.

"This is a very complicated NIE that requires a lot of nuance which this Administration has typically had difficulty with," said Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution.

ISRAEL
First strike tougher option
A public difference of opinion between Israel and its US ally about intelligence on Iran's nuclear capability will make it harder for the Jewish state to launch any unilateral pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear sites.

The National Intelligence Estimates report sent shockwaves through Israel, which is more used to having Washington endorse its regional strategic vision. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert reacted by urging that diplomatic pressure be intensified.

Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak suggested that American spies had suffered a "disconnect". He later said Israel would pursue "various options" against Iran, but did not elaborate.

The remarks fell far short of past hints that Israel could go it alone and hit Iran if it deemed diplomacy a dead end.

A retired Israeli intelligence analyst said: "This report means there will be no pre-emptive US military action against Iran in the foreseeable future. There will be no US 'green light' for Israeli strikes. It looks like a done deal."