I'VE got an idea. The burning of fossil fuels is changing the composition of the atmosphere. More than 97 per cent of the world's climate scientists agree that our burning of coal, oil and gas over the past century and a half has dumped so much extra carbon dioxide into the atmosphere that we are warming the planet.
Here's my idea: let's do more of the same. I did not think of this idea on my own. Shell, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, BP, and others thought of it first.
The heads of these companies have the ear of governments all over the world. For example, beginning in 2011 Shell, the sixth biggest lobbyist in Brussels, persuaded the European Union to reduce their binding renewable energy targets in favour of more fossil fuels. Shell is so important in New Zealand that they got our law changed in 2014 to make it harder for New Zealanders to protest at sea.
There's a twist to "more of the same", and the twist is gas. Gas equals clean; coal equals dirty. These companies do their utmost to convince us that gas will make "more of the same" look different. They latch "natural" on to "gas" at every mention and use words like "environment" and "clean" in their press releases.
For example, head of Shell New Zealand Rob Jager said: "Natural gas can help the environment because it burns much more cleanly than any other fossil fuel, especially coal."
Gas is the new improved version of "more of the same", the filter-tipped cigarette of the fossil fuel industry.
Gas emits about half as much carbon dioxide as coal. This is useful for the oil companies. Some, including Shell, have called for a worldwide price on carbon, to help wipe out that dirty old coal, give gas the competitive advantage and allow them to continue with the improved version of "more of the same".
Burning gas emits about 75 per cent as much carbon dioxide as crude oil. The new version of "more of the same" will slow the climate damage by one year in every four. That may not seem like much of an improvement but it fits with Shell's plans for our future.
They don't agree with world governments, who in 2009 decided to try to limit global warming to two degrees.
While no one can say exactly what a 3, 4 or 5C world will look like, we can be sure of more severe cyclones, droughts, floods, wildfires and sea-level rise. We can expect methane hydrate release from the Arctic, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet melt, ocean fish stock collapse, Amazon jungle die-off and more. To avoid these things, say the scientists, we need to have stopped burning all fossil fuels by 2050.
We need to be "carbon zero" by mid-century.
Shell, however, are putting their money on the new improved "more of the same" and predict a halving of carbon emissions by 2050. That's about as much use to the climate as filter-tipped cigarettes are to preventing lung cancer.
-References: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/27/shell-lobbied-to-undermine-eu-renewables-targets-documents-reveal
http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/66968518/Beat-climate-change-by-finding-more-gas
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=73&t=11
https://theconversation.com/shell-cant-afford-to-wait-until-2050-to-adapt-its-business-to-climate-change-42001
Rosemary Penwarden is a freelance writer and member of several environmental and climate justice groups.