Former Whanganui MP Chester Borrows thinks he has a hunch about which way Winston Peters will go.
Negotiations to form Government have been under way for almost two weeks as National and Labour meeting separately to try to make a deal with the Mr Peters-led New Zealand First.
Mr Borrows thinks it will be a NZ First and National Government owing to the 7.5 per higher vote National won over Labour.
"Basically, what I'm saying is it's a much bigger gap than Winston would choose to ignore," Mr Borrows said.
"The other thing is that he would much prefer and one-on-one relationship than some sort of three-way [NZ First/Labour/Greens].
"[Then] I would think that the next election would see an incoming Labour Government. Most people would put money on that."
Having got to know Mr Peters throughout his 12 years in Parliament, Mr Borrows said he would be taking the task seriously.
"He is a person who is actually very conscious of the conventions and traditions of Parliament. He's somebody who's been in Parliament longer than anybody else."
And he thought a coalition with Mr Peters would last the three-year term.
"I think he would see that as imperative. Between most parties there's about 80 per cent agreement on most things so the difference is only 20 per cent."
Mr Borrows said the time it was taking to form a coalition was nothing unusual and comments that Mr Peters was holding the country to ransom were "rubbish".
"The fact is that Holland had [an election] seven months ago and has only just formed one now," he said.
"What we've got used to over the last three elections is the National Party having a tight understanding of what was going to happen post-election with it's support parties.
"It doesn't happen every election and in this case we've had three weeks. It's hardly anything."