By JAMES GARDINER
Transpower believed there was a one-in-five chance of electricity shortages north of Taupo this summer when it warned the Government last month, papers finally released under the Official Information Act show.
The Herald alerted readers to the possibility of a shortage as early as July after Contact Energy's 360MW Otahuhu B power station broke down. The possibility remains, but Transpower now puts it at one-in-10.
The transformer on Otahuhu B has been shipped to Brazil for repair and may not be back in action before the crucial summer months of January and February when high temperatures put voltage pressures on the power system, particularly supplies into Auckland.
Correspondence and reports supplied yesterday by Energy Minister Pete Hodgson, in response to a Herald request more than a month ago, include the warning letter Transpower chief executive Bob Thomson sent Mr Hodgson on August 14.
Mr Thomson said potential problems might arise in the Auckland region from mid-January 2001 if three things occurred: Otahuhu B remained unavailable; Lake Taupo and Waikato River levels remained low, limiting output of associated power stations; and river temperatures rose, restricting the output of the Huntly generators (1000MW), which rely on the Waikato for cooling.
Mr Thomson said it was difficult to assess the likelihood of these three situations occurring, but suggested a probability of 20 per cent.
Other papers released show that Mr Thomson's reference to the way the operator of the Waikato River hydro stations, Mighty River Power (MRP), was using Taupo water "as it becomes available" infuriated MRP chief executive Doug Heffernan.
Dr Heffernan wrote to Mr Hodgson on September 5 saying that statement was uninformed. He complained bitterly that the Electricity Corporation, in its final months before split-up in April last year, had "run down" the lake's storage - a continuing frustration for his company, which had not been in a position since to restore water levels to normal.
Also revealed in the papers is a report that says Genesis Power, which runs Huntly, was granted resource consent to discharge hotter water into the Waikato but faced appeals against that consent from Tainui, the Conservation Department, Forest and Bird and the Environment Defence Society which could not be heard until December, with no decision before January or February.
Legal advice the Ministry of Economic Development sought suggested that a separate application for a temporary consent to cover the critical summer period might have more chance of success, with or without the consent of the appellants.
Mr Thomson said last night that considerable work had been done since those papers were written and he now rated the chance of problems at 10 per cent. An extra 50MW of energy would be available from southern power stations by upgrading the national grid between Tokaanu and Whakamaru. Voltage issues could still arise, depending on the success of the resource consent applications and summer temperatures, but the problem could be managed with co-opertion from consumers.
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