At the start of the Super Rugby season, the Blues and Highlanders were expected to battle.
The Blues had a mish-mash of backs while the Highlanders would struggle with an assortment of forwards. Combine them and they might be handy; or so the consensus went.
Some theories stand up and even after their meritorious win against the Brumbies, the Blues have not found a backline or made much headway and lie 13th in the series.
The Highlanders struggle on with their pack but have made their luck and pushed beyond their limitations to sit third in the NZ pool and fifth on the tournament points table.
How do you explain the discrepancy between the Blues and Highlanders halfway through the 20th edition of Super Rugby? Many have tried and the conjecture will expand as the competition advances.
Selection, coaching, planning, ability, attitude, preparation, the environment - all those aspects must blend to get the best out of rugby teams. Then they have to deal with other issues such as the draw, injuries and luck.
On Saturday night, the sides meet in Dunedin, with both packing a little extra confidence. The Highlanders grabbed that by beating the Crusaders away to maintain their heat on the competition frontrunners while the Blues found their first win of the season. One win does not make a season but it has broken the frowns which have engulfed the Blues since they stepped into combat more than two months ago.
That done, can they push on and double their tally this round?
Coach John Kirwan's troops will need to be a great deal better than they were at Eden Park, where they were helped by a Brumbies side who fluffed their lines through much of the game and missed early and late penalties which would have given them the game.
The Blues ground through their work, helped by a strong lineout and work around the ball, but had issues with the scrums and finding space on the park. The massive team tonic was the victory, something which has been a mirage and threatened to continue when Nic White lined up a penalty after the siren.
Now the Blues can go to Dunedin without the "when will they win" whispers which have been clinging to every contest.
But they will need to pack a great deal more firepower and accuracy than they launched against the Brumbies. The disconnect between the forwards and backs continues and shows out if the Blues manage to put together multiple phases.
The Highlanders have gone for it. Jamie Joseph and his squad have pushed the right buttons about camaraderie and collective endur-ance which they garnish with the individual clout of their star backs.
In four derby games this season, the Highlanders have split the wins and losses while the Blues have lost all three of the matches with the Chiefs and Hurricanes.