Given the current market for 2018 sporting predictions, add this to the mix: Tauranga's Bay Oval will become New Zealand's ninth test cricket venue next season.
A bold gambit perhaps, given the number of home tests are expected to dwindle in future, but Bay of Plenty Cricket and the Bay Oval Trust's ambition to host the longest format remains undaunted.
According to the International Cricket Council's Future Tours Programme, New Zealand will host five tests in 2018-19 – two against Sri Lanka and three against Bangladesh – although such schedules can change depending on bilateral agreements.
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Regardless, the odds are shortening for allocating a five-day fixture to the Mt Maunganui-based venue. Their six new LED floodlight towers made their international debut on Monday night in the rained out New Zealand-West Indies Twenty20. Judging by their quality, any such test could involve a pink ball.
The lights bath the turf in lux and compare favourably against other New Zealand locations. No South Island venue has light towers and, with Napier's McLean Park off the roster due to drainage issues, that leaves Auckland's Eden Park, Hamilton's Seddon Park, and Wellington's Westpac Stadium as competitors for the day-night market.
Bay Oval is also understood to be in a promising position because its custodians charge the ground out to New Zealand Cricket at a relatively low rate courtesy of less overhead costs.
The ground's rise up NZC's preferred facility order has come with significant local investment. For example, $4 million was raised to ensure the ground was ready to host day-night matches, including $1 million from TECT [the Tauranga Energy Consumer Trust]. $3.3 million of that was invested in the lights; the rest funded a replay screen, improved media facilities and an increase in the height of the ground embankment on one side, adding space for 2000 more patrons to take the capacity to 11,500. Former NZC turf manager Jared Carter was appointed as head groundsman in 2010.
Player feedback on the lights has been complementary, but a couple of other elements suggest progress.
The sand-based outfield drains within minutes of downpours. The New Year's Day fixture would have resumed quickly if the rain had stopped for a sustained period.
The word in the player ranks is that the pace of the pitch is also improving, as gauged by Colin Munro after scoring 66 from 23 balls on Monday.
"It was a good Twenty20 surface, quicker than usual, and it was skidding on.
"[As for the lights] there have been a few games under them in the Burger King Super Smash and, to my knowledge, no one has complained."
The pitch block has tended to play as flat as expected/requested for T20s.
On December 16, Northern Districts made 214 for nine and Auckland responded with 207 for six; on December 27, Central Districts made 201 for four before ND struggled to 152 for nine.
Such run-fests will need tempering, presumably with a thicker grass covering, if test status is granted.
The ground made its international debut in January 2014 when Canada played Netherlands in an ODI. It has hosted three ODIs and four T20Is since. Tonight's final T20 against the West Indies, a January 28 T20 against Pakistan and a February 28 ODI against England are scheduled to further showcase its capability. All the remaining matches are under lights.
Other competitors should be on notice; the Bay Oval is here to stay.