The $2.60 fixed price looks a touch of the shorts for Nymph Monte to win Saturday's Christchurch Casino New Zealand Cup.

Not if in isolation you take the stayer's runaway victory in Saturday's $75,000 Metropolitan at Riccarton. That was smashing, but there are a number of variables heading into the big one Saturday.

The big one is the weather. Saturday's track was very firm - some say bordering on hard in certain places - and that suited Nymph Monte.

Rain or showers are forecast for Christchurch on Thursday, Friday and Saturday and, if that eventuates, much can change.

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Nymph Monte has had three starts on slow and heavy tracks for zip.

Conversely, Maygrove is unbeaten on the heavy and although he did not appreciate Saturday's firm conditions, he will be a much more difficult horse to beat if there is rain. He should also be improved - Saturday's run was just his third this campaign.

And we've got newcomers Pecorus and Pump Up The Volume who can fire up in the wettest conditions. Pecorus is our most promising staying prospect and should be difficult to handle.