Very few good things at Ellerslie today, but massive scope for value, particularly in multiple bets.
With the track likely to be extremely testing if last night's projected rain eventuated, Bonniegirl might be one of the safest bets in race 4, the $30,000 Scot Thrust 1200.
When the footing is like it should be today, weight is an even more essential ingredient. Bonniegirl is going around with just 51kg on her back via Emma Smith's allowance. Forget she went around at Rotorua last start where everything went against her and judge her here on her previous good form.
This is not an easy race with Aaja Nachle appealing with a lesser allowance and Ramarro having plenty of ability in the wet.
Nota Bene (No11, R1) went well enough for a fourth in her one-start preparation the last time in, enough to make her an each-way hope in the opener. In her favour is her inside draw which should be an advantage in the first couple of races, until they start skirting wide for better ground. Angel Van Haarlem (No10) is another drawn nicely and has hit the line strongly for a second and looks close to a win. Two Thirty (No3) and Deviant Miss (No9) are hopes.
Del Rios (No6, R2) is better than the last two efforts suggest. A win came three back and even in this tough field there are winning hopes.
Jacqui Ickx (No4) is a quick improver who should be at good odds and Mr Luigi (No1) and Parallel Universe (No2), albeit with a question mark over the heavy footing, need consideration.
The 60kg for City Boy (No1, R3) looks frightening, but there is not a lot of scale on this race and he is not giving away massive amounts of weight. He can run a big race fresh.
In a good field, Wooster (No2), Swiss Elle (No11) for good odds and Ballychine (No5) appeal.
Nina Arora (No12, R5) powered into second last start suggesting the 1600m here should suit. You can make a case for a lot of these.
Daniece (No16) on debut, could not have created a bigger impression winning at the Cambridge barrier trials. Brilleaux (No5) is value and Handles (No7) is the blowout for trifecta bettors.
Joey Jonz (No1, R6) handles the worst winter footing and will be suited. His 3kg apprentice claim will be a massive assist. Trainer Nigel Tiley is at a loss to explain the reason for Spoke To Carlo (No3) running a shocker last week and says he's happy enough with the horse to give him another chance. Arzak (No6) and Our Kings Sway (No7) rate highly.
Summer's Day (No7, R7) appeals here, although if the race comes down to an absolute slog she might find trouble with A Tad Leica (No6) with just 52.5kg aboard. Scholes (No5) will battle through the worst of conditions.
This is a tough test for the juveniles over 1400m, But Quantum (No3, R8) has shown ample grit and will be hitting the line strongly. The wide draw by this stage of the day will be a definite advantage.
Pincanto (No13) is gutsy and Magic Warrior (No2) and Hello M'Lady (No11) appeal in the conditions.
The Gin Keeper (No5) is the each-way value in Race 9 and Race 10 will come down to whether star in the making Richie McHorse (No13) can handle the worst of conditions which he has yet to try.
If he can't Naughty Knuckles (No10) will test him.
Bachelor Zeel (No4, R11) looks the each-way go in the last.