The handicapper and the weather forecast will have a massive say in the result of today's $230,000 Coupland's Bakeries Mile at Riccarton.
Winter star Addictive Habit faces a tough ask on both counts.
No one is arguing Addictive Habit ($625,640 earnings) has not earned his 59.5kg topweight, but coupled with what is likely to be a very firm track, he is up against it.
And that has nothing to do with his unplaced run in the Windsor Park Plate at Trentham last start. That had more to do with Addictive Habit's dislike of being locked up inside a group of horses. He drew barrier No 1 and rider Sam Spratt was at no stage able to work him into the clear.
This time he has a much more favourable gate No 11, but the other two factors of weight and firm track conditions will count against him.
Allez Eagle looks better placed. He finished second in that Windsor Park Plate at Trentham last start under 59kg in the weight-for-age conditions. Unlike Addictive Habit, Allez Eagle is suited by today's handicap, dropping 3kg to 56kg.
He is probably a 1400m specialist and has an additional 200m to run beyond that, but he is no slouch at the metric mile. His first attempt was when he finished fourth in the Easter at Ellerslie behind Pondarosa Miss, Vespa and Kawi in slow 8 ground that blunted his usual brilliance. The other 1600m was in the Windsor Park last start and his second to Julinsky Prince was stylish. Slick underfoot conditions today will be ideal. Allez Eagle's last two 1400m wins have been clocked at 1.21.37 and 1.21.45, speed that many in this field do not possess.
Mighty Solomon, also at 56kg, looks the big danger. He is classy and has been tightened right up by his two races this preparation.
At his last start it took Kawi to beat him into second by a long neck in the Redcraze Bowl at Manawatu.
Earlier in the day, Soubrettes looks a fine chance in the $100,000 Lindauer Stewards Stakes. Soubrettes was beaten three lengths by Super Trouper last start, but it was her first start in one month and she is certain to have improved with it.
Additionally, she drops from 57kg to 53.5kg. She has won five from eight for Mandy and Matt Brown and this race looks to suit her.
?Cambridge apprentice Brendan Hutton is gradually recovering from the neck injuries he suffered in the horrific fall at last week's Ellerslie barrier trials.
"I have to have my neck x-rayed again next week, but at the moment I'm improving every day.
"I will be riding trackwork as soon as I get my clearance and I won't be away for very long."
Riccarton features
• Allez Eagle is suited by today's handicap, dropping 3kg to 56kg.
• Mighty Solomon, also at 56kg, could be the big danger.
• Soubrettes looks a fine chance in the $100,000 Lindauer Stewards Stakes.