The sevens will go gangbusters in The Tron next year, not so well the following year and, if it gets an extension, will be a sad shambles thereafter.
The unpalatable fact is that there is no appetite for sevens here... unless it is marketed as a two-day bacchanal.
A large chunk of New Zealanders have a love of 15s imprinted on their DNA* but even then it is a struggle to get anybody to turn up for anything below the All Blacks. Sevens doesn't have the cachet of 15s and that's not going to change anytime soon, especially after the derisive effort made by New Zealand Rugby to capture the inaugural Olympic men's sevens gold.
What young New Zealanders do have an appetite for, and it pains to say it, is piss-drinking on an epic scale. The sevens worked in Wellington when it had visitors flying in with a costume in their suitcase and $600 in their pocket to wax on booze and MDMA.
It was the sporting, and I use that term loosely, equivalent of a rock festival. The Big Two Days Out. The marketers knew it, which is why the tournament was played on Friday-Saturday, not the more traditional Saturday-Sunday.
That created unpleasant issues for those that actually wanted to go along to watch Russia v Kenya (it's never nice having to avoid piles of chunder when you need the loo) but let's face it, they're not the ones staying away in their droves now the event has become more family friendly.
So NZ Rugby is left with Hobson's choice: promote the sevens once more as a party and hope there's a stadium manager willing to risk all future licensing privileges; or continue shifting the tournament in the hope of getting first-year spikes in attendance.
The latter is the healthiest option and you can imagine it working well on a rotation basis for the likes of Queenstown, Dunedin and Palmerston North (as long as the students are in town), Mt Maunganui and Napier. Whether those centres have the required infrastructure is moot.
On the field, the sevens conundrum is an intriguing one, but as NZ Rugby made the marketing decision to attach the All Black brand to the team, they better find a way of fixing it fast.
* In a series on rugby and where it sits in the national consciousness in 2017, starting on Saturday, we will see worrying evidence that rugby, and indeed most "traditional" sport, is becoming less relevant to New Zealanders.
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I've covered Warriors games where Shane Endacott played five-eighth. I've watched Andy Platt and Denis Betts take well-paid holidays in Auckland. I've endured the "conversions" of Mark Carter and Marc Ellis and have a sneaking suspicion the centres have at one time or another been patrolled by the likes of Ryan Shortland, Dane Nielsen, Mike Dorreen and Anthony Swann.
Still, it's hard to remember a worse 120-minute stretch than the one this incarnation of the Warriors has just pulled off.
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What have we learned from the current tri-series involving the Black Caps in Ireland?
Not a heck of a lot.
Tom Latham's form has returned, as you'd expect it would against modest attacks; Colin Munro is, along with Martin Guptill, the most destructive batsman in New Zealand but unlike Guptill he's never going to get a decent crack; we have a bevy of workaday seamers who can slot in behind Tim Southee, Trent Boult, Adam Milne and Matt Henry.
Other than that, the biggest takeaway from the series is the unfortunate fact that Ireland are headed towards greater exposure just at the wrong time. The men in green still rely on the same old troopers - Ed Joyce and Niall O'Brien to name two - and there is not a lot of evidence of young quality coming through.
Sincerely hope I'm proved wrong on this one but it just feels like test status could come at exactly the wrong time for the Irish.
THE WEEK IN MEDIA ...
In a week where we contemplated a life taken too young on the rugby field, here's a column remembering a similar tragedy in a small corner of New Jersey.
Donald McRae always writes unruffled, sympathetic portraits of his interview subjects. Here's Sir Ben Ainslie, of Ben Ainslie racing.