Rotorua's young people will soon be in massive demand so we must invest in them or lose them, a population expert has warned.
Professor Natalie Jackson, director of the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, has also spoken of the huge potential for Rotorua's young Maori, who could prove key to the city's future.
Professor Jackson gave a presentation at a Rotorua Chamber of Commerce event on Thursday on the impact of demographic change on Rotorua's population. The audience included Mayor Kevin Winters, mayoral candidate Steve Chadwick and about 60 local council and business leaders. Judging by the questions posed, it was a presentation that got people thinking.
Professor Jackson said it was well known the world's 7.3 billion population was rapidly ageing - in New Zealand the 65-plus age group was expected to rise by 88 per cent from 2011 to 2031. At the same time the population under 64 is set to decline.
Obviously that meant more services would be needed for the elderly, but the implications of a diminishing number of young people were not as well-understood, she said.
Rotorua had a younger population than New Zealand overall but was ageing faster because of the stream of young people leaving - and that needed to be addressed, she said.
"[You've] got to realise your young people are going to be increasingly competed for in the rest of the Bay, the country and overseas," she said.
"You can't be complacent."
From 2011 to 2021 the number of New Zealand school leavers would drop by 28,000 and by 2600 in the Bay of Plenty. But 2021 to 2026 would see the entry into the labour force of "Generation TGYH" ("Thank God You're Here") who were the result of a "baby blip" seven or eight years ago, she said.
"They will arrive at the door of the labour market as the baby boomers retire," she said. "[They are] critically important to our future. We have to invest in them, we can't let them all go to Australia."
Professor Jackson said by 2021 more people would be leaving the Rotorua workforce than entering it - good news for skilled young people.
"You will have to pay them more," she said. "You have to plan for that ... . how are you going to deliver the services you need with fewer young people?"
She said if they were not paid well, young people would simply "follow their brothers and sisters across the Tasman" or elsewhere in the country.
"It's about them knowing [they are] valued and telling them they're really precious and we can't afford them to leave."
The shifting demographic meant there was huge potential for young Maori, who made up 40 per cent of Rotorua's 0-14 year olds, Professor Jackson said.
"They are the answer for the future. It's crucial for young Maori people to know this. The future is going to be very different to the past - the past some of their parents may have [known]."
Across the Bay of Plenty, the median Maori age was 24.8, compared to 40.9 for Europeans, she said.
"The young Maori population are ready to come in and take over those jobs," she said.
However, she warned, youth needed to be proactively engaged with to take advantage of their "window of opportunity".
Waiariki Institute of Technology deputy chief executive Keith Ikin said the skills and qualifications of Rotorua's young had to improve, otherwise it could be "catastrophic" in 20 years.
Waiariki was well aware of the impending demographic changes and had been targeting youth in recent years, he said.
Its proportion of students under 24 had risen from 35 to 50 per cent over the last three years while Maori students now accounted for 58 per cent of Waiariki's roll - up from 35 per cent five years ago.
Mr Ikin said Waiariki had been working with Ngati Whakaue on a science in schools programme and was finalising a youth engagement strategy that aimed to "raise aspirations" among Year 9 students. A Trades Academy it supported in the Eastern Bay had been extended to Rotorua this year, where school students spent one day a week training at Waiariki.
Mr Winters said he planned to invite Professor Jackson back to present to the whole council.
He said it was crucial for Rotorua to create well-paying industries that would enable Rotorua to compete globally - work already being undertaken by Grow Rotorua.
Mrs Chadwick said the city needed a plan that would benefit the over 65s and young people, perhaps with older people mentoring and passing on their skills.
She said educational efforts had to focus on the skills that would be needed, such as health and wellness.
Keeping young people in Rotorua was about more than just well-paid jobs, she said.
"We need to make it an exciting city where people want to live and come back to."