Ray Green is not stupid, which means Breeders Crown winner King Of Swing will try for an all-the-way win at Cambridge tonight.
The exciting three-year-old has drawn the ace in the first heat of what looks an even Sires Stakes series, with the northern crop having way more depth than recent season.
Already King Of Swing has won at group one level, as has race rival Mach Shard while Alta Maestro paced a couple of national records last season and returned with a win against older horses at Alexandra Park last Friday.
There is little between the trio or their other three rivals tonight but early season Sires Stakes heats tend to be dominated by leaders and trailer as the sprint distance and reluctance for fresh horses to be given hard runs can often mean those up front get handed the race.
Alta Maestro showed blistering gate speed last season but trainer Robert Dunn was keen to see him driven less aggressively when he won last Friday and if he opts for similar tactics tonight then King Of Swing should lead, always crucial in a Cambridge sprint.
And Green says that will be the plan, especially after King Of Swing led to win the $300,000 Breeders Crown at Melton in late August.
We would be stupid not to use the ace draw around Cambridge so that will be the plan, says Green.
He only had a week off after the Breeders and won well at the workouts last Saturday so I think he is ready for a 1:55 mile rate this week.
While Alta Maestro is an obvious danger, Green thinks his stable second stringer Recco Lover could trail and have an upset hope.
He has very good speed and isnt much inferior, if at all, to King Of Swing. So if he trails he has a good hope.
Mach Shard returns after a great start to last season but having little luck later and trainer Barry Purdon knows he faces a huge task from barrier five. We have seen enough of these Sires Stakes heats at Cambridge to know how hard they can be to win if there is no pressure so I am hoping they have a go at each other early, says Purdon.
The heat is strangely not a leg of tonights $100,000 Pick6, one that lacks any real anchors but also has a few legs with only two or three major chances so it worth attacking.
The problem child for Pick6 punters is Agincourt, who should win the last leg on raw ability but whose manners have let punters down twice in as many starts. He should be anchored on one ticket but well covered on another.