Only occasionally can you pre-empt luck in running in a horse race.
Lizzie L'Amour's Waikato Cup win was one of those. You knew from barrier No 3 she was going to be put in the race, put to sleep on the rail and probably win. It fitted.
When Lizzie L'Amour jumps as equal favourite from a wide gate (probably No 15) you have no idea how luck will play for her in tomorrow's City Of Auckland Cup.
She will need good fortune on her side, but if it arrives, she can win.
Lizzie L'Amour is perhaps the best of the progressive stayers we have seen emerge in the past couple of years and in the past 12 months alone we have seen a good few of them.
If Matt Cameron can find a decent mid-field spot for her in the first 400m her talent should shine through with just 53kg on her back again.
Co-trainer Murray Baker said that day at Te Rapa Lizzie L'Amour was "as good as we can get her", and said yesterday she had not gone backwards.
The pace should be a steady one, because stablemate Saint Emilion from his very wide gate has no option but to go forward early and will probably take up the running with a lap of the track to go.
He is in first-class order after his luckless fourth in the 2000m Zabeel Classic and the extra distance will not come into play, although the 60.5kg topweight may well late in the race.
Fanatic has the same problem as Lizzie L'Amour. She managed to get over to the rail from a mid-field barrier on the second day at Te Rapa and it was game over a long way out. She will need even better luck to get anything like the same position this time.
She is talented and getting better and rates highly. Luck is all she needs to figure in the finish.
Unquestionably, Megablast would appreciate some easing of the ground. He has had just one start on a decent track for a duck egg, but the track was reasonably good (officially dead) when he ran on strongly
into third to Lizzie L'Amour in the Waikato Cup.
He is another of those progressive stayers with it all ahead of him and if he is at all comfortable on the surface, ability will not be the issue.
Take no notice of Nymph Monte's failure last start, it was at an impossible 1400m and possibly even ignore his failure to do better than fifth as hot favourite in the New Zealand Cup before that because he may just be better suited to a distance like tomorrow's 2400m.
Five To Midnight has yet to win on a firm track, but his overall form is excellent and that firm track stat may not hold up. He caught the eye when he flashed home a fraction late to finish second to Jacksstar at Awapuni last start when the footing was very good.
Marciano and Snow Secret have the ability to poke their noses into the money. Both have drawn reasonable barriers which should allow for economical runs.