With history and weight against Golden Slipper winner Vancouver in the San Domenico Stakes, the Gai Waterhouse stable has two ready-made excuses.
However, if the matter-of-fact confidence of Tulloch Lodge is anything to go by, the star colt won't need them.
No Slipper winner has claimed the San Domenico since Tierce 24 years ago, although only four others have tried.
Fewer than one-third of the past 30 Golden Slipper victors have scored first-up as 3-year-olds, fuelling a belief among some that the 2-year-old showpiece burns out many of its winners.
Vancouver must also contend with topweight of 60kg and an awkward barrier draw in a race which is the beginning of a campaign destined to run deep into the spring.
Tulloch Lodge stable representative Mark Newnham won't hear of the horse being vulnerable to a race-fit rival. "He's done a fair bit of groundwork and Gai's always got the opinion that you have them fit to run so it doesn't hurt them, regardless of whether they've got a long preparation ahead or not," Newnham said.
The colt won the Slipper from the outside barrier.
Tactics in today's small San Domenico field don't concern the stable. "This horse has won on wet, dry. He's won from wide barriers, he's led and he's come from behind," Newnham said.
Despite coming from one of Sydney's glamour stables, it took Vancouver some time to convince punters he was the real deal but you get the feeling the Waterhouse stable never had any doubt.
"The first time he started favourite was in the Golden Slipper," Newnham said. "He may have been a little underestimated before then, but I don't think so now."
Vancouver is a $2.25 favourite ahead of Kindergarten Stakes placegetter Redzel ($4.60) and the in-form Japonisme at $5.AAP