Exciting 3-year-old Hughie Green may be in a race his connections don't really want to start in at Alexandra Park tonight but that doesn't mean he can't win.
That is the opinion of champion reinsman Maurice McKendry as the veteran of only five career starts prepares to take on open-class contenders Lets Elope and Norvic Nightowl in tonight's main pace.
Hughie Green has been exceptional this season for trainer Brian Hughes and looked a potential Derby winner with a stunning Sires' Stakes win at Cambridge last start.
Hughes would ideally have him contesting another Sires' Stakes heat tonight but after his Cambridge win he is ineligible and with no race last Friday and few options tonight, he is forced into a C2-9 mobile pace.
"That Sires' Stakes heat thing makes it tough on the 3-year-old who wins the first heat, especially up here with the smaller horse numbers," says McKendry. "So he is up against it. I drove Lets Elope last week and he came home [last 800m] in 55 seconds in the Holmes D G.
"So it makes it hard for us but a lot depends on whether they go 2:43 for the 2200m or 2:41.
"At 2:43 I think he can still beat them but it is going to be a big test. But he has to start because he needs the race with the Sires' Stakes Final three weeks to go."
Hughie Green does look something a bit special and in six months he might well towel tonight's opponents but punters wouldn't want to be taking odds on about him tonight.
Norvic Nightowl is the best placed to exploit any immaturity in Hughie Green and as a natural frontrunner could work his way to the lead as McKendry plays the conservative, and sensible, card with the 3-year-old.
The actual Sires' Stakes heat should be dominated by the Ray Green-trained pair of Strike The Gold and Chachingchaching, who have the best of the draws and might be able to manipulate a lead-trail scenario.
Chachingchaching was the more advanced last season but Strike The Gold has clearly improved and cruised a sub-27 second last 400m winning a maiden last Friday.
From the ace it is hard to see how he won't get the gun run and be the one to beat.
Further south, Master Lavros gets the perfect chance to return to winning form in the main trot at Addington, a race trainer Mark Jones is all but forced to start him in after two poor performances so far this season.
The small field and absence of Habibti and Stent suggest Master Lavros needs to win this to put his Dominion Hcp defence back on track.
Meanwhile, races in Sydney and Brisbane tomorrow night will greatly affect the Australian assault on next month's New Zealand Cup.
Seel N Print probably can't win the sprint at Menangle but needs to place to stay on track, while in Brisbane For A Reason and Abettorpunt will need to go very close if they are to be regarded as chances for the Cup.