There are plenty of ifs and buts around today's $50,000 Chevalier McGregor Grant Steeplechase at Ellerslie.
Like if topliner Tom's Myth was fully fit he might be difficult to hold out. But the star of the winter of 2012 has had just one 2000m maiden flat race since July last year and traditionally that puts a doubt around his winning chance.
Two winters ago, Tom's Myth won the Wellington Steeplechase, Pakuranga Hunt Cup and Great Northern Steeples.
He failed to come up last year and was spelled after failing in the Wellington Steeplechase.
Volkswagin is another who had a year off in 2013, making his first raceday appearance in 22 months when he raced on the flat at Rotorua last month.
He showed the benefit when third over steeples at Hastings last start, leading and jumping well.
That should have him somewhere close to his best.
Trainer John Wheeler is expecting a big run from Volkswagin. "The better the track the better his chance," says Wheeler. "He's close to his best after that Hastings run."
Veteran Myths And Legends is back in form judging by his Te Rapa showing.
He is as tough and rugged as they come and that's what it's going to take to win this race.
McCulley is a maiden steeplechaser, but he has some fine minor placings to his credit, including his last-start second in the Great Western at Riverton.
Topweight Sea King has 70kg to lump in the $50,000 K.S. Browne Hurdles, but he was hugely brave under a similar weight when second at Te Rapa last start.
Weight and all, he will be difficult to contain.
Five jumping races today signify the real start to winter racing.
On the flat Cillian Will in Race 9 looks a good prospect and in the last, Aaja Nachle is well placed to improve on her second on this track last week.
She was beaten by Britt Ekland, who franked that form with another victory on Saturday.