The middle leg of the Auckland Racing Club's summer carnival at Ellerslie today will prove a testing one for punters with lower-grade horses and maidens dominating proceedings.
Decorah (No 5) won well enough last start to suggest she is a mare on the improve and looks an excellent each-way chance in the opener. She goes up a grade, but has a nice weight at 54.5kg and a perfect barrier draw. Nine Pin (No 3) and Bronte Lass (No 2) are in good form and look the dangers.
The Collett/McRae stable holds a very strong hand in the second race with So Wotif (No 4). He is resuming from a spell, but is from a stable that can get them ready to perform fresh from breaks. So Wotif has a bit of class and should not be left out of multiple bets. Gaston (No 2) is hard to catch but with Michael Walker in the saddle is worth some thought.
The third race for the juveniles is extremely tricky. Barrier draws are generally critical in these races and Roman Aspect (No 3) has drawn the rails. He is on debut and looked good winning at the barrier trials. There are a stack of chances and Skipper (No 12) is one of them.
Alchemy's Flight (No 4, R4) looked good in just two starts in the spring, winning on debut then finishing second. She had a break and comes in here off the back of a barrier trial win.
She has drawn a reasonable barrier and should be difficult to contain in an open race. Demandz (No 5) has an identical record, but not a good barrier draw. Pinzano (No 10) looked good winning on debut and also has an awkward draw to deal with.
Altius (No 6, R5) caused a bit of havoc on debut and after winning narrowly his relegation was no great surprise. He would have won clearly had he run straight on that occasion and looks a horse of real promise. He is drawn to be difficult to contain here and looks the one to beat.
End Of The World (No 7) has been off the scene for a long time after an excellent debut second. The biggest problem here is the barrier, but if he has some luck he could still be in it. Annabelinda (No 11) is a hope.
Race six looks near impossible, although the 2kg Michael Dee takes off Coachline's (No 1) 59.5kg will be significant. His form has been better than it reads and he was caught wide before finishing a close fifth in a stronger field than this at Pukekohe last time. Lonely Boy (No 1, R7) looked promising finishing second on this track last start at only his second appearance at the races. He is an improving Zabeel and is one to follow. If he gets anything like a decent run from his wide gate he will take plenty of beating.
Dillon Hall (No 5) has had only two starts. He got his tongue over the bit in his first run then got caught wide from an awkward barrier last start. He has drawn much better this time and will be a good value runner. Bachelor Brave (No 9) is the improver. His debut was stylish.
Lots of chances in Race 8. Roger James has a strong hand with Allesandra (No 2) and Full Count (No 12). Both are likely to go ahead from this point. This is a race that will probably be decided by luck.
Liquid Asset (No 5, R9) appeared to choke down last start and has a tongue tie today. He is promising and will be a danger. Moretti (No 13) and Zvonareva (No 12) are in form.