It's the news holidaymakers don't want to hear - yet another sub-tropical low is headed towards the upper North Island and my feeling is that January is quickly being written off as more lows, rain bands and clouds look set to continue on for another two weeks at least.
This weekends low may not be so widespread as last time and will be coming in further east - the current models show it sparing Nelson from the worst, but would still be one to watch. A low coming down from the tropics is a bit like balancing a tennis ball on your pointing finger - the finger being Northland. The ball (low) can drop down either side, and that's why tropical lows are always one to watch. But the latest models seems to insist this will track down the eastern side of Northland and straight into Bay of Plenty and East Cape - possibly even a little further east than that (fingers crossed).
Rain will likely peak between Sunday and Tuesday.
But it's not over then - and I can sympathise with those wanting the sun. Wet weather also means forecasters have to keep on working - so I have sympathy for the many others out there who just want the sun to come out and stay for a few weeks!
So this new low brings rain from the weekend until about Tuesday.
The next low, from the lower Tasman Sea, will likely push in to the West Coast on Thursday and move into the North Island next Friday.
And now some extra long range models are showing another sub-tropical low around January 18th to 20th.
In between these rain events will be plenty of cloud and humidity. It appears it is not the North Island's turn to have a ripper start to summer this year.
Keep in mind Feb and March are often very settled... I think there will be many New Zealanders praying for that to happen.
From a personal point of view the lawn is growing too fast for me - I'm tired of mowing my lawns. But the dairy farmers couldn't have asked for anything better...well, apart from those in Bay of Plenty forced to dump milk after last weeks tremendous rain.
Give it to me straight Doc - when will we have an extended dry spell? It's looking less and less likely to be January - and to be honest, I can't tell you, with any great confidence, about the last 10 days of January just yet, but something significant needs to shift in our weather patterns if we want anything to improve.
Southland and Otago continues to boast about the stunning summer weather down there - where the days are much longer and the daytime heating is more significant. But even the deep south won't be immune to some of the rain makers coming in this month - but it's certainly been the place to be so far this summer.