The attack on Ecuadorean soil is the type of action that can polarise public opinion. Photo / Reuters

The attack on Ecuadorean soil is the type of action that can polarise public opinion. Photo / Reuters

The attack by the Colombian military on the guerrilla group Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) on Ecuadorean territory did not come out of the blue. There had been a series of political moves and symbolic aggrandisements from the military for it to have been approved by Colombian leaders and citizens.

One of the main precursors for this attack was Colombian President Alvaro Uribe's cosy relationship with the United States. Uribe would not have done what he did in Ecuador had he not been fully backed up by the Bush Administration.

Therefore, this attack takes on a different subtext: one of the United States attempting to destabilise the growing, democratically elected governments in South America.

The military response of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to the Ecuador-Colombia conflict incriminates him of being not just pro-FARC but also an open supporter of armed rebellion to accomplish his vision for a united, socialist South America.

This attack shows that President Uribe no longer trusts in peaceful negotiations, and that he is an armed defender of democracy.

Uribe has been defeated, not by FARC, but by the violence he is attempting to eradicate.

What's next? Will there be war? Unlikely. Regardless of grand posturing by Chavez, he is aware that economic trade with Colombia equals about US$5 billion ($6.2 billion) per year and money is, essentially, the only weapon he has.

Yet the attack on Ecuadorean soil is the type of action that can polarise public opinion. The running joke says that Uribe's approval rating is about 125.5 per cent since the attack on the insurgents, but without a doubt FARC's rating must also be ascending. The dangerous part of this is that either side will now have enough ammunition to become fanatical about their cause and extremism alone has been killing thousands of Colombians for decades.

FARC's response? For the time being there will be changes in its line of command (Raul Reyes will be replaced by Joaquin Gomez) and business as usual. Yet since FARC's structure is one of small, independently run clusters with a central command, there is the potential for segmented bouts of violence followed by the internal chaos of any major organisational change.

From Uribe we are already seeing a diversionary tactic. He will trivialise the Ecuador border violation and focus his attention on taking the case against Chavez' astronomical contributions to FARC to the International Court of Justice.