Global kiwifruit marketer Zespri International is likely to cut staff numbers once the impact of the Psa bacterial disease on next year's crop is more clearly known.
At this stage Zespri believes the national crop will fall by 20 million trays on the back of a record crop of 115 million trays this season. That would result in a revenue drop of more than $100 million.
Zespri chairman John Loughlin told the Bay of Plenty Times that "we are doing some preliminary work on redundancies". He said the board had instructed its chief executive Lain Jager to look at cost adjustments to the organisation.
Mr Loughlin said the picture was not clear yet and it should unfold in the next two to three months when the present selling season is finished and "we have a sighting on what the new crop looks like".
"If the revenue is going to be down, then we have to adjust costs accordingly. But we haven't worked out all the answers yet about how you might shrink the organisation," he said.
Asked how staff were reacting, Mr Loughlin said "they are aware the industry has changed and you have to adjust. That's understood, but it's never easy and pleasant when the world changes."
Te Puke-based Seeka Kiwifruit Industries, the country's largest post-harvest operator, has made a voluntary redundancy offer to its staff, after saying it will be handling fewer kiwifruit next year.
Mount Maunganui-based Zespri has 270 staff, with 150 New Zealand-based, and it recently hired six new people overseas to grow kiwifruit sales in the South East Asian and Indian markets.
Mr Loughlin said "we geared the organisation up for growth prior to Psa and we've now got a delicate balance. We have a goal of doubling the crop by 2025 and we have to make sure the organisation is positioned for a recovery when we find a way to live with Psa."
On present estimates, next year's crop would fall to about 95 million trays, and the more lucrative gold variety would be trimmed to 20 million trays after reaching 30 million this year. The green crop would naturally reduce because of the exceptional season and large yields this year.
Mr Loughlin said while the volume will probably be lower next year, the revenue won't be down quite as much.
"The revenue is determined as a percentage of fruit sales and with a smaller crop we can put the prices up a bit," he said.
Mr Loughlin said present prices were holding up pretty well and the selling season had been extended to the end of November. Last week 17 new cases of the serious Psa-V were reported, taking the number of infected orchards to 312, with 304 of them in the Te Puke priority zone.
Psa-V had also spread to Whakatane, Katikati and Waihi, and 48 per cent of New Zealand's kiwifruit hectares were in the priority zones.
Mr Loughlin said 60 per cent of the gold orchards in Te Puke might have a Psa infection but not all of those vines will be removed by next season.