Met Service says December and January are likely to be bathed in sunshine. Picture / Bay of Plenty Times

Met Service says December and January are likely to be bathed in sunshine. Picture / Bay of Plenty Times

Weather forecasters have warned that this summer could be the hottest in almost a decade, raising the danger of bush fires.

Met Service spokesman Bob McDavitt said December and January were likely to be bathed in sunshine and hotter than average. It could be as hot as 1998, when Auckland had 10 straight 30C days and ran out of power.

"It will be sunnier - there's more sunshine. And long, dry days are expected. We probably will see a few 30C days, even in the Auckland area. We normally see only one a year, and there might well be more this coming summer."

The baking heat will be a result of the El Nino weather system which will bring west and southwest winds across the country, especially across the North Island. There will be more sunshine and warmer temperatures, especially in the north and east.

"We're playing by El Nino rules. The only place that gets wetter than normal conditions in El Nino is south and west of Mt Cook," said McDavitt.

But don't break out the barbecue and head to the beach just yet - November is set to be a frustrating time. The temperatures will be about average but, McDavitt said, we were in the midst of a weather cycle where fronts from the Southern Ocean came across the country every seven days, giving nice weather during the week but ruining the weekend.

That phase should end by December, bringing on the summer weather.

But McDavitt said the summer sun would bring serious effects to holiday makers.

"Places in the north and east will be drying out over November and become a bush fire risk, so be careful," he said. "There's more sunshine - be careful. More people are going to die of UV, almost 300 per year. It's about the same as the road toll."

In 2004, soaring temperatures in January set records in many parts of New Zealand.

Many Canterbury farmers had trouble keeping lambs alive in the heatwave, and one of the biggest problems was for train travellers, many of whom were overseas tourists.

Long-distance trains in both islands slowed to a 40km/h crawl because of the risk of heat buckling tracks.

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