Herald DigiPoll July 20-27. Sample 1000. Margin of error +/- 3.1%

Herald DigiPoll July 20-27. Sample 1000. Margin of error +/- 3.1%

EXCLUSIVE - Labour's fortunes have dramatically reversed in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey and it now leads National by 6.4 percentage points.

In the same poll last month, Labour trailed National by 3.9 points.

National overtook Labour after the May Budget, but with just over seven weeks to go until the election Labour is back to where it has been for most of the three-year term, in front.

Labour has risen 7.7 points to 43.9 per cent of decided voters and National has fallen 2.6 points to 37.5.

The popularity of Helen Clark as preferred Prime Minister has risen by five points, to 53.8 per cent. National leader Don Brash has also had a rise, by 3.3 points, to 28.3 per cent.

The biggest loser in today's poll is Winston Peters, who has dropped eight points as preferred Prime Minister to 10.3, and his New Zealand First Party, which has fallen 4.7 points to 7.1.

A breakdown of the results suggests there is a substantial soft vote in the electorate and that National has taken a slice of elderly voters' support from New Zealand First.

If the poll was translated to seats in the House, neither the Greens nor Act would be in the next Parliament. And Government-forming options could be complicated.

Labour would need the support of either New Zealand First or the Maori Party and National would need both New Zealand First and the Maori Party.

Mr Peters yesterday continued to distance NZ First from the prospect of being "king-maker" or "queen-maker" for National or Labour.

DigiPoll director Dr Gabriel Dekel said the trend in Labour's favour was apparent when he began polling on Wednesday last week, well before Labour released its $300 million student loans policy on Tuesday this week. Polling finished the next day.

Although the policy itself could have had little impact on the poll, Dr Dekel pointed to big shifts in relevant demographic groups.

Last month in the student-age group 18 to 24, National was supported by 40.5 per cent and Labour by 37.8 per cent; this month National has the support of just 28.4 per cent of that group and Labour 50 per cent.

A shift has also occurred in the parents-of-students 40 to 54 age group: last month National had much more support among them than Labour did at 44.2 to 34.3; today's poll shows Labour ahead in that group with 40.9 support and National 39.8.