Labour support plunges again

Herald-DigiPoll taken Jun 21-26. Sample 800, margin of error 3.5%.

Labour's grip on power is looking decidedly shaky with a slump of almost seven points in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey.

The gap between the Labour and National parties has steadily narrowed since April, when Labour led by 13 points. By late May, Labour's lead had been reduced to seven points.

Today's poll puts National ahead of Labour by almost four points, with no more than 13 weeks to an election.

Labour has now fallen to the same place National was a month ago, at 36.2 per cent support, a similar position to its slump last year after the Orewa race relations speech by National leader Don Brash. Labour took five months to recover.

The poll also points to a public relations nightmare for Finance Minister Michael Cullen, who is trying to convince voters that the country cannot afford substantial tax cuts. Two-thirds don't believe him. And one-third would support tax cuts even if they meant higher interest rates.

With no let-up in the debate over the meagre tax relief offered in the Budget - at worst, 67c a week in three years or the cost of half a packet of chewing gum - two June polls, UMR Insight and Colmar Brunton, showed National inching ahead of Labour.

This latest poll suggests that trend is increasing and that Labour's fightback has failed to stop it.

New Zealand First has also increased its support and continues to hold the balance of power. If the poll's party vote translated into an election result both National and Labour would need its support to form a Government.

Another sign that Labour's star is fading is the falling popularity of Prime Minister Helen Clark.

Added to that is the fact that fewer people think the Government is headed in the right direction than those who don't think it is (39.9 per cent compared with 50.8 per cent).

The last time the Government had such a negative rating was in February last year.

The proportions have long been in the positive for the Government, until last month's poll when the responses were even.

This time Labour falls 6.9 to 36.2 per cent, National is up 3.9 per cent to 40.1 per cent, NZ First climbs 3.6 to 11.8 per cent, the Greens are up 0.7 to 4 per cent, the Maori Party is up 0.4 to 3.1 per cent, Act is down 0.6 to 1.9 per cent and United Future is down 0.5 to 1.3 per cent.

Helen Clark is down 3.4 points as preferred Prime Minister, at the expense of rises for Dr Brash and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.