By PHILIPPA STEVENSON agricultural editor
The agriculture-driven prosperity boosting the provinces and delivering profits to agribusiness companies is forecast to continue into the new year.
The meat and wool economic service predicts more of the good prices for lamb, beef and dairy products in 2001 which, with an export-favourable exchange rate, have in 1999-2000 given the pastoral sector its best results in two decades.
The effects have been evident in greater spending by farmers, including on fertiliser and machinery, which has flowed through to boost provincial towns, and in a return to profit or increased profits of a range of agricultural companies.
Anticipation of the good times continuing already has the meat industry expecting record export revenues of more than $4 billion, or nearly twice the amount meat exports earned in 1990. The dairy industry estimates its returns will lift by more than $1 billion to over $9 billion and the payout to farmers by $700 million to a record $3.8 billion.
Executive director Rob Davison made the economic services' promising forecast when reporting a key meat industry performance indicator - the year's lambing percentage, or the number of lambs born per ewe.
The annual survey estimated the number of lambs born this spring was 35.8 million, an overall lambing performance of 115.9 per cent, the second highest on record.
Spring storms in some regions had blunted expectations of another good year, so the result was better than expected, Mr Davison said.
But the lambing performance, only 0.8 percentage points behind the record set in 1997, continued the trend seen throughout the 1990s of increasing sheep farm productivity.
The number of lambs born this spring was similar to the number born in 1993, when there were 4.4 million more breeding ewes than in 2000, he said.
"This demonstrates the benefits of the widespread adoption of new technology and improved management systems into the sector."
The Northland-Waikato-Bay of Plenty region achieved its third highest lambing percentage, Taranaki-Manawatu, Otago and Southland all achieved new record lambing percentages, while the East Coast North Island region equalled last season's record. The Marlborough-Canterbury region recorded its second-highest lambing percentage.
Mr Davison said the survey indicated lambs for export in the 2000-2001 season would be similar to last season, at 24.9 million.
However, with average carcass weights expected to be down from the record weight achieved last year, the total meat tonnage for export would be down by 3.6 per cent.
Lamb prices were expected to remain good this season, with strong demand for New Zealand lamb in most markets underpinned by an exchange rate that remained favourable to exporters, he said.
Farmers had been pleased with prices so far and while returns were expected to fall as supplies increased, they were still expected to remain above the levels of 12 months ago.
"This means that provincial New Zealand looks set to prosper during the coming year, as these good lamb prices coincide with good prices in the beef and dairy industries."
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