Always give a horse another chance, particularly in sticky winter footing.
Make that the case with My Willie Montague in Race 7 at Te Rapa today.
Disappointing may be too strong to sum up My Willie Montague's third on this track two weeks ago, but it was below his previous excellent form.
The track that day could have been at fault and the likelihood of looser footing today may make the difference.
My Willie Montague is a pretty smart winter horse at best and a peak effort would be good enough to win. In the same race look for a better run from Black Ledger (No 3), who flopped the same day as My Willie Montague.
The Message (No2, R8) has a heavy track record of one placing in four starts, but that may not be an accurate guide to his chances in the Foxbridge Plate. The Message had an interrupted career early and there was enough evidence to suggest he is better now. His wins before his second fateful trip to Hong Kong in December suggest that and he may have the edge in class today. His owner and trainer John Ralph considers The Message fit enough to win. He will probably need to be because, class and all, rivals like Vyner's Lane (No 5) are very fit and will keep rolling down the home straight regardless of the track. A very loose track would suit Stylish Prospect (No 9).
Sir Albert (No 3, R9) will go out a $2 favourite as he did when he won with ridiculous ease at Ellerslie last week. He looks headed for good things. The win by Exploding Song (No 2) here two weeks ago was no fluke and if you are looking for better value than $2, the quinella might be the right track.
Another headed for big things is Zabeels Angel (No 6), whose win at Ellerslie in April was hugely impressive.
There are a couple here who are fit and solid, a couple of factors where Zabeels Angel may have the question mark over her, but if it comes down to class, she will prove hard to dispose of. Altiero (No 2) looked good grinding hard to the line in fairly testing conditions at Ellerslie last start and taking a line through the fact 2-year-old form could be better than that of the older horses in the old season, she has the right credentials. False Claim (No 1) is better than his last-start effort.
Reb's Shu (No 1, R1) may have been undone by the fast pace set by eventual winner Lost In The Flood at Paeroa last start and if allowed to set the tempo himself today, should prove hard to pull back. Look to Gold Story (No 2) to agin be running at the leaders late.
Jumping from 1200m to 1600m at this time of year can be extreme, but the way Calici (No 1, R5) finished off his race here two weeks ago suggests that may not be a problem. Calici lunged determindly when beaten a half-head and if he can keep going with the same dash this time, should go close.
The open handicappers get poor at this time towards the end of every winter and if Velodium (No 4, R6) is going to win another race, this should be it. Any rain today will help enormously. Velodium found himself a fair way from pacemaking winner Just There here two weeks ago and ran on nicely into fifth.
This race is likely to be run to a different pattern and will probably suit something running on strongly. Hangover Harry (No 2)has the form to justify favouritism.
The last is probably the best betting race, although there is no obvious good thing. There was a lot to like about the way Millnorm (No 4, R10) won at Ellerslie two starts back and there was not too much wrong with his third here two weeks ago. Star Wars (No 2) is in the right form and Stylish Heritage (No 7) is another who will be best suited with a loose, wet track.
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