By MICHAEL FOREMAN
Predictions about the death of the printed page may be greatly exaggerated, but the demise of the traditional copier is looking imminent.
That's the view of giant computer and peripherals manufacturer Hewlett-Packard, which is limbering up for a battle royal with Fuji-Xerox over the remains of the analogue copier market, which is losing ground to e-mail messages and printers.
While printer sales suffered during Asia's economic difficulties, the Asia Pacific region is now experiencing 15 per cent annual growth.
HP is the dominant printer manufacturer in the region. It had 65 to 67 per cent of the total market for printers in the year to October 1999, according to the research firm IDC.
Within this market HP is strongest in low-end laser printers (defined as 1-9 pages per minute), with 72 per cent of the market. Its weakest area is in the colour printer market, but even here the company holds a 52 per cent share in the Asia Pacific region.
HP proclaims that the day of colour laser printing has dawned, despite the fact that only 18.5 per cent of its LaserJet revenue came from colour-capable models in 1999.
It expects the colour page printer market to grow by 40 per cent this year and says IDC's 10 per cent growth forecast is too conservative.
But Sandra Ng, Asia Pacific director of communications and peripherals research at IDC, says the cost of colour printing is still considered high, especially in consumables.
Sales may also be hindered as real total cost of ownership analysis is difficult, being clouded by information by manufacturers which is based on different assumptions.
"It's very difficult to do an apple to apple comparison," she says.
The good news for printer manufacturers like HP, and investors in forestry alike, is that the internet is not reducing the amount of information committed to paper. The net in its various forms has now become the source of 65 per cent of printed pages (up from 8 per cent in 1996), according to HP. Their research shows that when a company introduces e-mail, its printing volume rises 40 per cent.
"There will always be a need for hard copy," says Sandra Ng.
"It's still the preferred medium for reading, especially for long documents."
The widespread use of faster networked printers means it is easier for office workers to print out useful web pages, lengthy e-mails and attachments.
"Printing on demand" has led to significant changes in the way printers are used.
"We are not printing stacks of documents in their entirety - we are printing just what we need now.
"People may only print two pages out of a 10-page document, but the interesting thing is that they will print out those couple of pages many times, even if they safely file them away. It actually adds up to more printing than the whole of the original document."
Another internet-related trend is that the person doing the printing has changed from the sender to the recipient.
Lee Massey, HP general manager for departmental printers, points out it is far cheaper to distribute documents by e-mail than to print them and then mail or send them by courier. In short, fobbing off the cost to your customers, suppliers or other departments.
Another trend identified by HP is that where companies are making multiple copies of documents, they are more likely to print originals on a laser or inkjet, than to resort to a copier.
HP estimates the proportion of hard copy output produced digitally has risen from 30 per cent two years ago to roughly 50 per cent. By 2004, the company believes the digital slice will be 70 per cent.
"Side-by-side with the digital growth we are seeing a corresponding decrease in copying," says Joergen Jakobsen, HP's Asia Pacific marketing director of imaging and printing.
"Within three years the copier as we know it will have disappeared."
Copier manufacturers have seen the writing on the wall, and Xerox, Toshiba, Canon and others are treading on the departmental laser printer's shoes by adding network capabilities to their digital photocopiers.
At the same time printer manufacturers such as HP are adding scanners to their laser printers to allow them to function as copiers or "mopiers" (multiple original printers).
"You have two worlds that are colliding," says Mr Massey.
This collision can cause conflict within customer organisations over who controls the printer-copiers, as facilities managers have traditionally procured copiers, while printers are in the realm of the IT department.
"In some cases politics and the power thing come into it. IT managers are winning for the simple reason that the device is going to go on the network, and it's going to have to be supported by the IT department."
Mr Massey believes the need to support networking is also one reason why Hewlett-Packard will come off best in what he calls "the deconstruction of the copier room."
"You've got to be able to go into the IT manager and talk about Unix hubs and TCP/IP protocols. We have over 20 years' experience of networking printers and it's not the sort of thing you can pick up in a week."
Mr Massey says reliability will be another factor in HP's favour.
"There are 2500 moving parts in a copier compared to 250 in a printer."
While HP is confident it will win the battle with copier manufacturers in the early part of this decade, and the copier will go the way of the typewriter, IDC is more cautious.
"Nobody knows the answer [to who will win] but both will co-exist - Hewlett-Packard and Fuji-Xerox are both major players," says Sandra Ng.
"HP is strong in computing and well known by IT managers, but Xerox has been strong in the copier arena for a long time.
"When a user demands copying features their name is likely to be the first that comes to mind."
* Michael Foreman visited Singapore as a guest of Hewlett-Packard.
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