Black Caps will win one out of six - if they're lucky
By GREG MATTHEWS
Not since the dark days of Australian cricket in the mid-1980s, when New Zealand created history by beating Australia both at home and away in a test series, would the Kiwis be feeling so confident about taking on the World Cup champions.
But the New Zealanders will not just have to feel confident - they will need to play to the very best of their ability in every game.
New Zealand have just completed a whitewash of the West Indies, 2-0 in the test series and 5-0 in the one-day internationals - tremendous stuff.
But the Australians also had a phenomenal home summer, winning 16 of 17 matches they played in, culminating in nine consecutive victories.
New Zealand will enjoy home-ground advantage, and the small grounds and slow wickets will suit their bowlers. Spirit and camaraderie in the team are at an all-time high.
You can bet that coach David Trist will be reminding his players of the struggle the Aussies had on their last visit to the Caribbean.
Throw in New Zealand's strong batting, their excellent allrounder Chris Cairns, the best left-arm spinner in world cricket, Daniel Vettori, and I'm thinking New Zealand could beat anyone at home.
Anyone, that is, except the World Cup champions, Australia.
Under Mark Taylor, Australia became undisputed world test-match champions and a good one-day team.
Steve Waugh, though, has raised the bar. Under his captaincy, Australia have improved their performances at test level and become one-day champions. They have greater intensity.
Every game the Australians play is important. Their very lives seem to depend on it. They have a killer instinct that was previously lacking.
They are always going for the throat, trying not just to beat the opposition but to destroy and demoralise them so that they think, "oh no, not these guys again," when they next meet in battle. It is psychological warfare.
This was highlighted in the second one-day final of the tri-series when Pakistan's fielding fell apart as Australia amassed a record total of 337.
Then, with the result and final series all but wrapped up, Waugh called on his two premier strike-bowlers, Glen McGrath and Brett Lee, to finish the Pakistanis off. Others might have thrown the ball to the allrounders or part-time bowlers.
Australia will field a star-studded team. The best fast bowler in the world in McGrath, the quickest in Lee, the best spinner in Shane Warne, the best wicketkeeping allrounder in Adam Gilchrist, the best fielders in Mark Waugh and Ricky Ponting and two dynamic allrounders in Andrew Symonds and Shane Lee, whose striking of a ball is the equal of Cairns'.
Gilchrist, Mark and Steve Waugh, Michael Bevan and Damien Martyn are all capable of scoring centuries. Throw in the fact that Australia are the greatest fielding team the game has known, so that the opposition are minus-20 before they score a run and that every member of the team bar Gilchrist can bowl with success, and you have a side with no weaknesses.
And what about players who have not been selected - MacGill, Blewett, Slater, Moody, to name a few? I wonder if the Kiwi selectors would like to have the problem of whom to leave out.
As much as I have enjoyed, admired and respected the improvement in New Zealand cricket which began under Steve Rixon's coaching, I cannot see the Kiwis winning more than one game.
Just one, because the Aussies are only human, after all, and they have to adjust to New Zealand pitches.
Six-nil would not surprise me, either.
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