Most people will have written the Highlanders off before they take the field tonight in Hamilton.
Can they beat the Chiefs? Of course they can, it's a two-horse race and the Highlanders have enough quality, but there's no doubt that beating the Chiefs in Hamilton has become the Everest of Super Rugby - the toughest place to travel to and win in New Zealand.
You used to say that about the Crusaders in Christchurch but some shocking things have been going on there lately: the Rebels won there on the opening weekend and recently the Chiefs, Hurricanes and even a 13-man Sharks team have breached that former fortress's walls.
There are cracking match-ups all across the field tonight that could have a bearing on the result - half and midfield to name just two areas - but for me, the hopes of the Highlanders hinge to a large degree on the man at the back.
Ben Smith has probably played his best rugby for the All Blacks on the wing, but for the Highlanders his outstanding qualities shine through at fullback. He is extremely dangerous at the back and is, usually, well-utilised.
For me, Smith has injected himself into games as often or effectively as he was last season.
He needs to get more involved for the Highlanders to start clicking, and he has to do it from first receiver, as is demonstrated in the diagram.
You'll often see fullbacks slot in at first receiver in defensive areas of the field and is largely used as a kicking option. For the All Blacks, Israel Dagg will often position himself on the other side of the ruck from Dan Carter. They kick off the opposite feet, and this makes it harder for the attacking team (in terms of territory, not possession), to get to the kicker.
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But where Smith breaks the paradigm is that he is brilliant at injecting himself at first receiver in midfield to three-quarter field positions.
The traditional line for fullbacks in these parts of the fields is to drift in behind the attacking line and inject one of two slots in from the wing. But Smith is at his best when he comes from a bit deeper and takes the ball straight from the halfback on the opposite side of the breakdown from the first-five.
Smith is brilliant at this because he reads the game so well. He can spot a weakness in the defensive line and exploit it. When he does this he generally causes havoc. From here, his physical and mental attributes come to the fore.
Physically he is good on his feet and can beat players clean. If he is stopped, for a guy that doesn't look that big, he is still very strong in the tackle and can either offload or set up phase play with quick ball.
Mentally, Smith's best attribute is decisiveness. He has great body language and makes quick, decisive decisions as to whether he runs, kicks or passes.
As a teammate he's easy to follow because you know you will not get any dithering. This also has the effect of straightening up the attack. The Highlanders are at their most vulnerable when they are lateral.
It will not be easy for the Highlanders to win in Hamilton, but if they are to stand a chance, expect to see a lot more of their No 15.