A climate scientist is predicting rising temperatures could transform Hawke's Bay, making it home to wheat crops, raisin producers and a growing number of Australians.
Jim Salinger says average temperatures in the region are predicted to increase 2.5C by 2090, turning it into a largely frost-free part of the country which would be more prone to droughts, heatwaves and strong westerly winds.
"What was a one-in-20 year drought in this area will become something like a one-in-two or one-in-five year drought," he told an audience of about 50 at Hastings District Council yesterday.
"Hawke's Bay will become much more like the Mediterranean - very dry, drought-type summers, hot."
This scenario may not be good news for farmers but overall, global warming presented a positive economic opportunity for the region, he said.
While current high global dairy prices were enticing for farmers, milk remained a commodity product that was increasingly being produced in other markets and prices could fall. Other uses of Hawke's Bay land could generate higher margin products, he argued.
"In the long term I would probably not see going hugely into dairying as the best choice because the huge potential of this area is the range of agricultural activities that can occur. Hawke's Bay has got a wonderful climate for a whole range of agricultural activities."
As well as providing ideal conditions for a mixed range of crops from wheat to raisins, rising temperatures were also likely to change the varieties of wines produced here, he said.
The hotter conditions would better suit "hot climate" varietals that have not yet taken off locally including sangiovese, grenache and zinfandel.
Hawke's Bay winemakers could be in for a global marketing bonanza if scientists' predictions that some of the world's best-known grape growing regions - including parts of Spain, Italy and Western Australia - became too hot to produce high-quality grapes over coming decades while at the same time local grape-growing conditions improved.
Dr Salinger said the impact of climate change was being felt in Australia with bush fire season arriving earlier than expected in New South Wales this year and parts of the country sweltering under heatwaves of up to 44C. "I predict in another 10 years there will be quite a healthy migration to New Zealand [from Australia] for various reasons. Trying to live in 45C heat is no joke."
Dr Salinger is the editor of Living in a Warmer World. Released in October, the book is a collection of essays from scientists which examines how climate change will affect people's everyday lives through issues such as access to food, water and land, and the climate's impact on health. "We put this book together on the fact that planetary warming is already happening and we're seeing changes in nature, in agricultural patterns, and these are going to continue for the next few decades at least. So we need to really prepare and adapt," he said.
Rising sea levels would have a major impact on low-lying regions such as coastal Hawke's Bay. Hastings Mayor Lawrence Yule, who attended Dr Salinger's talk, said sea level rises were the one aspect of global warming likely to spur people into action.
"There is a huge conversation to have in this region and it is unpalatable, but when you think that Hawke's Bay Airport is 500mm above sea level then in 100 years time it will be below sea level and we as a region are going to have to think about that." Mr Yule presented Dr Salinger with two bottles of Hawke's Bay wine after the talk - a tiny drop in the region's potential viticultural ocean if his outlook for the region's grape-growing potential turns out to be true.