By FRAN O'SULLIVAN
It was a close-run election - and one decided by a bunch of judges rather than the voters.
For George W. Bush, the challenge now will be to hold to the thrust of his pledges and introduce tax cuts to give a fillip to the slowing US economy.
They don't have to be at the stratospheric heights of $US1.6 trillion as laid out in Bush's election policy agenda. There may even be a trade-off between cuts to the broad income tax rates and the introduction of further concessions around the edges for families.
And it does seem inevitable that Bush will try to modify, or defer the introduction of, some of his policies, such as the partial privatisation of Social Security, as part of the healing process.
But he shouldn't drop the bucket entirely.
Personally, I'm on the side of tax cuts and the partial privatisation of the US Social Security. It may not do a lot for those Americans now arguing that Bush should build a consensus for centrist policies to overcome the deep public concerns and divisions over his failure to get an outright election-night victory.
But Bush's plans to collapse the two top tax brackets of 39 per cent and 36 per cent into a new lower top tier of 33 per cent would be a welcome stimulus for the US economy.
It would also get the international focus back on the benefits of cutting taxes and constraining Government expenditure, rather than simply raising them to accommodate the politicians' spending whims and outright vote-buying.
Trouble is, opinion is split in the US whether such a massive cut would simply put pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to offset any inflationary effects.
Inevitably, there will be flow-through effects to world economic growth - whichever way the issue is finally settled.
That's where the game gets interesting for New Zealand.
I'm sure there will be political squawks here if Bush does go ahead with the $US1.6 trillion tax cut.
I can't see the current Beehive occupants saying, "George, you must keep your campaign promises and cut taxes."
They are more likely to applaud any policy softening by Bush as a sensible recognition of where the American voters' real sympathies lie. Introducing a more centrist approach would simply be acknowledgment of the tight finish and a move towards reconciliation.
But they should join this debate.
Taking the centrist argument forward, a case could easily have been made for Labour and the Alliance to abandon their own tax-hike plans after their narrow election victory.
This moralistic, vengeful tax-hike programme, more than any other single Coalition policy, in my view stands as the key reason so many bright young New Zealanders decided to say "stuff you" and pack their bags this year.
The business community has inevitably come round and is now just getting on with it. Self-interest always wins out in these standoffs.
But we are in a contest for talent and investment.
Dropping personal taxes and abandoning company tax would be a quick signal that New Zealand is serious about becoming a first-world nation once more.
As we move out of 2000, the Prime Minister has softened her "Helengrad" approach. This column has certainly taken a critical approach to the harsh and relentless style Helen Clark exhibited in her early months as PM.
That style has since softened and New Zealand is now getting used to a much more inclusive politician. And not before time, as the challenges ahead of us all to build an outward, innovative and sophisticated nation are immense.
Business needs a positive domestic environment. Strong political leadership must take that into account.
One final point: I would like to pay a tribute to two fine New Zealand businessmen whose sudden deaths have robbed this country of their outstanding contributions.
IT entrepreneur Trevor Eagle and INL head Mike Robson were each leaders in their fields.
Unlike most New Zealand businessmen, Trevor was never afraid to speak up for what was right for Kiwi business and to hold Governments to account. He was also a damn fine host who never shied from a good debate and was enormously proud of his family's contribution to the growth of Eagle Technology Group - particularly his wife and business partner, Corallie Eagle.
Mike Robson was already a legend in the news game when I signed on as business editor at INL's New Zealand Times 16 years ago.
He pushed for an open economy and slipped me Business Roundtable documents proposing a new labour relations regime. But throughout it all, he remained an excellent reporters' boss.
They are both missed.
* This is my last column for 2000. The column will return on February 12, after I have taken a short sabbatical in the UK. For all my readers, please enjoy a wonderful New Zealand summer and a prosperous 2001. E-mail comments to: fran_o'sullivan@wilsonandhorton.co.nz
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Diary of a democracy in trouble
The US Electoral College
Florida Dept. of State Division of Elections
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