New Zealand job ads fell by 0.8 per cent in October, following a 3.0 per cent decline in September, and suggesting unemployment will stay at around 7 per cent over the next six months, ANZ economists said this morning.
ANZ's job ads series, which covers newspaper and internet ads, showed the monthly fall was driven by a further 2.0 per cent fall in internet job advertisements on top of a 2.5 per cent fall in September. Newspaper ads rebounded 5.7 per cent, recovering much of their September fall.
The bank's composite total, which weights newspaper ads more heavily to give a better indicator for the unemployment rate, rose 1.6 per cent after falling 4.1 per cent in September.
"This series has been trending down since mid-2011 and continues to suggest an unemployment rate of around 7 per cent over the next 6 months," ANZ said.
The bank said anecdotes of job losses in the tradeable sector were starting to accumulate.
Statistics NZ's household labour force survey, released early this month, put the official unemployment rate at 7.3 per cent, up half a percentage point from the previous quarter.
"While we are sceptical that the labour market is quite as weak as suggested by last week's household labour force data, it is notable that total job ads in October were 7.0 per cent below their July 2011 post-recession peak,' ANZ said.
Canterbury job ads fell in October but continued to trend higher, while other regions remain flat to falling, ANZ said.
- APNZBy Jamie Gray Email Jamie