The position is clear: New Zealand have only one course of action tomorrow night against Bangladesh - then cross their fingers.
After being well beaten by England at Cardiff in their second Champions Trophy match yesterday, New Zealand must beat Bangladesh at the same ground, then hope England topple Australia 24 hours later.
They should be confident on both counts.
New Zealand have won 21 of 30 ODIs against Bangladesh but the most recent loss was in Dublin a few days ago, when they conceded 271 for a five-wicket defeat.
England, the first team to take their place in the semifinals, are in top form, confident and really fancy their chances of winning the title. And if you think they'd even contemplate going soft on the Aussies with their knockout spot booked, forget it.
"If we're truly going to be contenders for this tournament we need to beat the best teams, and Australia are one of the best teams," England's captain Eion Morgan said.
If either of those factors don't play out for New Zealand, it's an early trip home for a winter break. Tempting as that may be, New Zealand must show their true capabilities.
The bowling in testing conditions in the UK was generally tidy but they need more productivity from the middle/lower batting group. Then again, that's nothing new. Collectively they have flattered to deceive too often in the last few months.
Kane Williamson, Martin Guptill and Ross Taylor can't do it all themselves, all the time.
New Zealand need to reflect on their inability to at least get closer to England's 310 yesterday. A platform had been laid and while England's seam bowling was impressive, and the pitch posing some challenges, the likes of Neil Broom, Corey Anderson, Jimmy Neesham and Mitchell Santner simply didn't deliver. They produced 42 runs off 59 balls collectively while, in some cases, managing to get out in witless ways.
What changes could New Zealand contemplate? Tom Latham perhaps in for Luke Ronchi at the top of the order; bustling left-armer Mitch McClenaghan for a frontline seamer? Unlikely. Jeetan Patel for Santner? Or alongside him for perhaps Neesham? Or how about Colin de Grandhomme, most likely for Neesham?
There is room to move but a hunch would have them sticking with their favoured XI and expect them to do the business.
Even if they do Australia, who have suffered two washouts, could still make that result irrelevant.