The probability of a large earthquake hitting Canterbury continues to decline as the earthquake sequence settles down, says GeoNet. Latest aftershock probabilities show the chance of a magnitude 5.0 to 5.4 aftershock happening in the next year is now at 69 per cent - compared to 71 per cent last month and 82 per cent in January.
There is now a 29 per cent chance of a magnitude 5.5 to 5.9 hitting before November 9, 2013, a 9 per cent possibility of a magnitude 6.0 to 6.4, and a 2 per cent chance of 6.5 to 6.9 aftershock.
There is just a 1 in 100 chance of another magnitude 7.0 or higher like the 7.1 which struck Darfield on September 4, 2010, sparking the Canterbury earthquake sequence.
More information on the sequence of aftershocks is available on the GeoNet website.