Kiwi to rise on rate cut doubt

The kiwi is heading for a 1.2 per cent weekly gain against the greenback. Photo / iStock
The kiwi is heading for a 1.2 per cent weekly gain against the greenback. Photo / iStock

The New Zealand dollar is heading for a 1.7 per cent gain on a trade-weighted basis as economists pulled back their expectations for another interest rate cut after the Reserve Bank disappointed some in the market anticipating new tools would be rolled out sooner to cool the housing market.

The trade-weighted index rose to 77.61 at 5pm yesterday from 76.30 last week and was up from 76.72 on Thursday. That's the highest level since May last year and well above the Reserve Bank's 71.6 projected average for the third quarter. Two-year swap rates rose 4 basis points to 2.22 per cent, and 10-year swaps were up 1 basis point to 2.49 per cent.

ANZ Bank New Zealand changed its call for next month's policy review, picking the Reserve Bank will keep the official cash rate at 2.25 per cent after deputy governor Grant Spencer said on Thursday that new macroprudential tools are being looked at, and there could be an extension to investor-based limits across the country by the end of the year.

Some commentators were expecting Spencer's speech to announce new policy, including Prime Minister John Key who yesterday said the central bank didn't need to wait six months to act.

"I was surprised by the reaction of the currency to the RBNZ last night -- I didn't think it'd announce anything and it didn't" and ASB is still picking a cut in August, said Tim Kelleher, head of institutional FX sales NZ at ASB Institutional.

"The TWI's heading up to 78, and anything with an 80-handle would look unjustifiable and unsustainable and you might get some RBNZ action if you're not careful."

The kiwi is heading for a 1.2 per cent weekly gain against the greenback, trading at US72.54c at 5pm from US71.50c on Thursday. ASB's Kelleher said the June non-farm payrolls report in Washington will be key with global investors backing safe-haven assets such as gold, silver and US Treasuries.

The local currency rose to A96.73c from A95.28c on Thursday after Standard & Poor's put Australia's credit rating outlook on "negative", meaning there was chance its AAA rating could be lowered.

The kiwi climbed to 4.8488 Chinese yuan from 4.7674 yuan on Thursday and advanced to 72.83 yen from 72.61 yen. It rose to 56.02 British pence from 54.78p on Thursday and increased to 65.45 euro cents from 64.49 cents.

- BusinessDesk

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