Tourists make the pilgrimage to the top of the sand dunes off Ninety Mile Beach, Northland, to slide back down on boogie boards. Photo / Richard Robinson

Tourists make the pilgrimage to the top of the sand dunes off Ninety Mile Beach, Northland, to slide back down on boogie boards. Photo / Richard Robinson

The last time the tourism industry was hit by an economic downturn was after the Asian crisis in 2000.

But that will be just a blip compared to what operators are now facing, says Paul Yeo, head of the inbound tour operators council and the travel agents' association.

"That was a Clayton's downturn."

There was also the terrorism factor after September 11, he recalls.

"But it also had some up-spin because New Zealand was perceived as a safe destination. Australia got hit more than we did. New Zealand rode out the last downward cycle pretty well."

Yeo reckons the last time New Zealand's tourism industry faced such strong headwinds as it does now was in the years after the 1987 sharemarket crash.

But it was also a very different industry back then.

"A lot of the players were more traditional and big. In the last 10 years there has been a wealth of new entrants.

"The domestic travel market was also stronger as less people travelled overseas on the back of the strong growth."

He believes it is many of these businesses who will feel the pain first.

"Where it will hurt are those who joined in the early part of the century. Some will be okay. But some on the periphery will be the ones most at risk.

"A lot of people who have come into this business have put all of their skin on the line."

While there's no talk of going backwards yet Yeo says even plateauing growth may be too much for some.

"When you've had 4 or 5 per cent growth and it goes down to just 1 per cent, people are not used to it."

For the last decade New Zealand tourism has enjoyed the economic boom-times.

Visitor numbers have skyrocketed as more and more international tourists have sought out New Zealand's clean, green image.

But as winter sets in there are signs that the long holiday enjoyed by the industry is at an end.

Last month visitor arrivals plunged by 8 per cent on the previous year's April figures - although that's blamed on an early Easter.