New Zealand as it might have been: What if there had been no Treaty?

A painting shows Hobson shaking hands with Hone Heke. Photo / Auckland City Library Collection

In a series of edited book extracts we present visions of how our history might have developed if key events had taken a different course. Giselle Byrnes looks at what would have been the outcome if the Treaty of Waitangi had not been signed on February 6, 1840.

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The story of the signing of the Treaty is now well known. However, it is less well recognised that Hobson had originally scheduled this first Treaty signing for Friday 7 February, having presented the Treaty to the assembled chiefs on Wednesday 4 February. According to contemporary accounts, by the morning of Thursday 6 February, the chiefs had reached the conclusion that the Treaty business should be dealt with immediately so that they might return home: besides, the food provided as hospitality to them had begun to run out.

At this point, Hobson was on the Herald, moored in the bay, and completely oblivious to this change of events. By mid-morning, there was no indication of life on board, and when a boat was quickly sent for Hobson, he apparently had "not the least notion" that a crowd had gathered.

Alarmed by this turn of events, Hobson agreed to bring forward the day of the signing ceremony.

A stickler for proper procedure, he insisted the meeting on 6 February could not be seen as a "regular public meeting", since formal notification had not been given. Hobson thus suggested that the Friday meeting still be held for the purposes of discussion, but on the Thursday only signatures would be collected. As it happened, bad weather prevented any meeting from taking place on the Friday. The Treaty was duly signed, Maori left, and the rest, as they say, is history.

What might have happened if Hobson had kept to his original plans and not brought the signing of the Treaty a day forward? Quite probably, Maori would have left Waitangi, the Treaty would not have been signed, and Hobson would have returned to Britain empty-handed.

There are a number of possible alternate scenarios concerning what might have happened had Hobson not managed to get his act together. First, Maori might have remained in control of New Zealand as autonomous tribes and political entities. Second, the British might have invaded by force rather than use a treaty of cession. Third, New Zealand might have been claimed instead by the French or the Americans. And fourth, British colonisation would have proceeded over those areas where British settlers were resident, with Maori retaining their autonomy in other areas. It is also worth noting that in the absence of a treaty, Maori would have no special rights beyond that of common law rights.